As the political leadership of Pakistan is fighting each other neck to neck over power, I decided to sit down & pen a comprehensive strategic plan to save my country's economy. FY1 I am not an economist. I am a physician by profession with a 21 years experience in medicine. So if I make any mistakes, kindly send me a feedback as I still consider myself as a student of economy.
I have been reviewing international economic trends for years. I have taken courses in economy. I have read books. Here is what I think can be done immediately to save Pakistan.
1. First as a nation we must unanimously acknowledge that this is an "engineered" downfall as a byproduct of geo-political tug of war between super powers.Everyone wants a piece of Pakistan. US doesn't want China to use Pakistan against it. China doesn't want US to use Pakistan against it. On top of that India is playing as a double agent between US & Russia & Russia in turn is convincing China to prefer CPEC via Afghanistan/Iran over Gwadar in a bid to appease its MIC that is dependent on Indian market. So latest shake-up of Pak economy is a product of a) US/NATO trying to take down Pakistan in an anticipation of imminent South China Sea invasion b) Loss of support from China due to rapid influence of Russia via BRICS in the aftermath of Ukraine war. Both factors have one common denominator. That is India. India has convinced US of its support against China in an imminent invasion in S China Sea. Simultaneously, India has used its leverage in Moscow to deeply impact Beijing's decisions over Pakistan. For the first time Pakistan stands alone without any support from US/NATO or China or Gulf nations (heavily dependent upon US's approval). Reason why economy is in a free fall is that while economic hitmen of US/NATO are attacking Pakistan in collaboration with India/Israel to make Pakistan too weak to support China in near future- Pakistan's safety valve aka China has been damaged by significant escalation from Russia to keep China on its side. BRICS is a pivotal aspect of this entire fiasco. Moreover, China has been promised support from Iran by Russia in case of any misadventures by US. Russia has also helped de-escalate India against China promising that India will not be allowed to be a threat to China. How Putin convinced Xi in the setting of Modi still deeply linked with Pentagon is a commendable art of geo-diplomacy that is probably the reason why Ukraine is being won by Russia against US/NATO. But Pakistan is being squeezed to its last drop by US/NATO/China/Russia in this entire raucus noise of the sharks. It is a polarized world & Pakistan having decided not to polarize is being hit the hardest from all sides. So most important point that we as a nation must remember before we proceed with anything is that our current economic decline is not a natural outcome or the product of regime change as promoted by Imran Khan or due to our own negligence. IT IS AN ENGINEERED ECONOMIC RECESSION. It has been planned for years & no matter who is the head of state or whichever party is ruling Pakistan-this engineered assault on Pak Economy will not decelerate or stop. Unless we as a nation understand this basic point, we cannot move forward. Because treatment of natural decline of economy is totally different from reaction to designated economic terrorism committed against the nation.
2. Once you have identified that this is an engineered problem & you have identified the main actors playing as engineers, it will be easier for you to come up with a retaliatory response to decelerate the ongoing terrorism against our economy. Question is how can we fight economic terrorism. Answer is very simple. We are a nation that has excelled in war against terrorism. During the time of GRS, we eliminated terrorism by 99% & the operations were effectively continued during the time of Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. War against economic terrorism will not be fought with guns, airplanes or tanks. It will be fought with our pens & papers. So are you ready? Here is what I have devised as a comprehensive plan against economic terrorism that has crippled PKR & PakEconomy
#For immediate rescue, we must enforce temporary demonetization. We must make all paper Pak currency null & void after Eid ul Fitr. This will force the non-taxpayers to deposit their hidden wealths in local banks. If they don't deposit their secret stash, they will lose it all. After Eid-ul Fitr it will have zero value in the market. Once we force the money to reach our banks under demonetization plan, the government issues bonds that will be bought by these banks in exchange for this money. This money will then reach State bank of Pakistan boosting our reserves significantly by Eid-ul-Fitr. Once all the secret stash starts showing up on global platforms, the rumors of default will die. If someone tried to convert his/her secret stash into another currency, that can be checked by monitoring all currency exchangers closely. If someone tried to invest the money in crypto online or Gold, that can be monitored as well & contained to achieve maximum output.
# We as a nation have been so busy fighting proxy, hybrid & combat battles against India that we have not as yet generated a counter terrorism response to India when it comes to Indian-orchestrated economic terrorism. Question is how do we do that? There are many ways; 1. Reserve bank of India can be forced to stop functioning for a month. If RBI is stopped from printing INR for one month, India will have to declare bankruptcy. Because Modi has been on a INR-printing spree for years to cover up the losses & to be able to pay for Indian government expenses including its heavy military expenses. 2. Our media must be motivated to continuously discuss the downfall of Indian economy with facts & figures. There are 3 questions that all Pakistani journalists must start asking on our mainstream media talk shows now for the next 3-4 weeks. a) Why is Modi hiding poverty statistics of India from the world? b) Why is RBI printing exorbitant amount of INR? 3) Why is RBI dumping USDs in market to artificially inflate INR in the global market. If we start discussing these 3 very important questions on mainstream media we can expose the cracks in Indian economy to the world & turn the nozzle of the guns towards India that are currently pointing at Pakistan.
# Integrating all bureaucratic institutions of Pakistan with a centrally regulated e-bureacracy. One of the biggest challenges that any government faces in Pakistan is delivery of its subsidies to the masses due to massive voids in transparency of our government bureaucracy. This can be tackled by going digital & integrating our civil servants to a federally-regulated e-bureaucracy. Every bureaucratic decision taken by every civil servant will have to go through an e-portal that will take input from local mobile users. So if civil servant signs a tender on paper to approve a road that never transpires on the map, e-bureaucracy will entangle the corruption immediately. How? Because civil servant will have to declare this tender approval to e-bureaucracy that in turn will ensure existence of a tangible infrastructure in place by connecting with the local mobile users. This will play a major role in bypassing not just the red tape but effective orchestration of plans. Once subsidies are received by the deserving masses, poverty alleviation will be facilitated automatically.
# Tax the Overseas Pakistanis. All Nycops must be registered in a separate FBR specially designed for the overseas Pakistanis. They will be required to disclose their collective incomes outside of Pakistan. If they choose to remain citizens of Pakistan, they will be required to pay tax on their collective income to government of Pakistan. W2 of overseas Pakistanis must be requested by FBR & for maintenance of Nycop & travel documents. A tax plan must be devised for them that is feasible & durable. They will be given right to vote, contest in elections & even become PM of Pakistan if they participate in the tax bracket of Pakistan.
#Tax the weddings. All 4-5 star venued wedding must be taxed heavily. Period.
#Tax Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Twitter, TikTok, Snapchat, Youtube, Google on the revenues these companies generate from their Pakistani users.
#Create mass civil rights non-political movement against IMF & WB in Pakistan. Have farmers/laborers/small businessmen hit the roads against IMF/WB targetting their vicious crackdown on Pakistan's economy. Make this movement big & strong & internationally audible to international human rights circles. Tell the world how IMF has killed the farmer, laborer & small businessman of Pakistan. If a wolf gets out of control, there are only two ways to manage it. One is to tame it. Other is to kill it. These wolves will have to be either tamed or killed by the collective effort of the nation. Politicians will never do it. Because they are mostly on the paychecks of these wolves.
Economists are not going to do it. Because even they are receiving special incentives from the wolves. WTO was shut down in US Seattle by mass movement of the people. We can replicate this model on the streets of Pakistan to either tame IMF/WB or end their presence effectively in Pakistan.
-Dr FAB, MD
